Sat, Dec 3, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 111 | 04 | 122 |
| BOS | 010 | 29 | 211 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:20BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Nathan Horton, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:08TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jake Gardiner, Joey Crabb · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:11BOSChris KellyGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Andrew Ference · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 3:06BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 14:26BOSNathan HortonAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:49BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:11TORClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:11BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:33BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
- P3 6:28BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:45BOSJoe Corvo: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:45TORJoey Crabb: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:44TORClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Steckel – Dupuis – Colborne4:53
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Crabb – Grabovski – Kulemin7:16
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Connolly – MacArthur – Frattin6:38
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak11:51
xG 0.31–0.49 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner5:06
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson11:07
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Gardiner2:02
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic13:36
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:56
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot8:01
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:47
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Ference2:49
xG 0.66–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk12:57
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Ference – McQuaid11:13
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).