Sat, Dec 3, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Ottawa Senators 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 016 | 18 | 110 | 00 | 234 |
| WSH | 18 | 016 | 110 | 11 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: John Carlson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:58OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 5:01WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:45OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 0:12WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: Jason Chimera, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:23OTTKaspars Daugavins: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:20WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:54OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:19OTTNick Foligno: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:25OTTChris Neil: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Winchester
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Butler11:15
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Foligno10:47
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Neil – Konopka – Winchester7:06
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith10:07
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen15:39
xG 1.07–0.38 (74%)attempts 22–5goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Phillips8:35
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson2:46
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Hendricks – Perreault7:22
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Knuble – Johansson – Eakin7:13
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich14:24
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom13:29
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov9:55
xG 0.52–0.44 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson18:11
xG 0.91–0.84 (52%)attempts 18–18goals 0–2
- Erskine – Orlov2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).