Sun, Dec 4, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 04 | 05 | 122 |
| VAN | 010 | 215 | 311 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:34CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Roman Horak, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:13VANKevin BieksaPPAssists: Chris Higgins, David Booth · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 19:01VANChris HigginsGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, David Booth · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 0:40VANDavid BoothAssists: Ryan Kesler, Chris Higgins · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 1:54VANJannik HansenAssists: Mason Raymond, Keith Ballard · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 5:42VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:20CGYCurtis Glencross: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:03CGYBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:01VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:29CGYJarome Iginla: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 10:33CGYDerek Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 15:35VANChris Higgins: Interference2 min
- P3 5:14CGYRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:57VANDavid Booth: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:00VANAaron Rome: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:00CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:00CGYMatt Stajan: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:00CGYMatt Stajan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:00VANMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:00VANAaron Rome: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:00VANMaxim Lapierre: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:31CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan6:26
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund9:14
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross7:26
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Bourque – Horak7:01
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Brodie13:17
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler10:16
xG 0.54–0.53 (50%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Smith2:27
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Booth11:19
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Hodgson7:26
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Weise5:51
xG 0.02–0.03 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows8:31
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa15:04
xG 0.95–0.60 (62%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Ballard – Rome12:06
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Salo – Edler10:12
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).