Mon, Dec 5, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 210 | 18 | 430 |
| NYR | 08 | 212 | 012 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01TORCody FransonAssists: John-Michael Liles, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:12TORTim ConnollyAssists: Matt Frattin · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 6:49TORJoffrey LupulPPGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.34 xG3–0
- P2 13:00NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Brandon Prust, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 14:32NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.41 xG3–2
- P3 19:55TORDavid SteckelENAssists: Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:05NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:05TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:21TORJay Rosehill: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:16NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:52NYRRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P2 6:36NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:20TORDavid Steckel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:12TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:23TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:11NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:30TORClarke MacArthur: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak12:59
xG 1.72–0.48 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Connolly – MacArthur – Frattin9:17
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Steckel – Dupuis – Rosehill2:37
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Crabb – Kulemin – Colborne7:32
xG 0.09–0.50 (15%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Franson10:15
xG 0.94–0.22 (81%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:16
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gardiner12:40
xG 1.05–0.92 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Boyle – Mitchell – Hagelin5:15
xG 0.19–0.16 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan9:55
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Callahan10:55
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Avery – Dubinsky – Prust4:35
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Eminger11:04
xG 0.68–0.08 (89%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Sauer – Del Zotto11:52
xG 0.41–0.63 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh17:53
xG 0.97–1.95 (33%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).