Tue, Dec 6, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 0, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 012 | 09 | 033 |
| VAN | 16 | 15 | 412 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 6:53VANJannik HansenAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 5:15VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 5:49VANJannik HansenAssists: Alexander Edler, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 7:08VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
- P3 9:40VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Cory Schneider · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–6
Penalties (20)
- P1 10:55COLKevin Porter: Kneeing5 min
- P1 10:55COLKevin Porter: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:23VANRyan Kesler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:49VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P2 13:05VANDan Hamhuis: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:05COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:46COLJay McClement: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:51COLKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:51VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:27COLKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:27VANMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:27VANDale Weise: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:27COLKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:12VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:59COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:46COLChuck Kobasew: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:46VANVictor Oreskovich: Holding2 min
- P3 14:46COLShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:46VANVictor Oreskovich: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:46VANMaxim Lapierre: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – McClement – Winnik5:11
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Yip – Galiardi – Duchene2:23
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog9:26
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Jones – Galiardi – Duchene5:03
xG 0.09–0.55 (14%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Johnson6:10
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hejda – Elliott2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – O'Brien2:22
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows6:28
xG 0.64–0.03 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Kesler – Hansen – Raymond4:33
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Raymond – Hodgson – Weise2:16
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Oreskovich3:03
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa13:06
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Ballard – Rome9:16
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler10:06
xG 0.22–0.55 (28%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).