Wed, Dec 7, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 39 | 114 | 533 |
| EDM | 17 | 110 | 18 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33EDMEric BelangerAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Andy Sutton · Deflected, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 19:22CARJeff SkinnerPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:36CARJamie McBainPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:47CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Eric Staal, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 15:41CARChad LaRoseSHGWGAssists: Bryan Allen · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 15:50EDMBen EagerAssists: Lennart Petrell, Anton Lander · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 3:43CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 13:21EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.40 xG5–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 18:36EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:59EDMLennart Petrell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:36EDMAndy Sutton: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:41CAREric Staal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:47EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:49CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:55EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:55CARAnthony Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:30CARBryan Allen: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:27EDMAndy Sutton: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:27EDMBen Eager: Charging2 min
- P3 13:48EDMTom Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:51CARTim Gleason: Instigator2 min
- P3 17:51CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:51EDMAndy Sutton: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:51CARTim Gleason: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner9:07
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- LaRose – Nodl – Sutter9:20
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Tlusty11:10
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Brent – Stewart3:37
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Joslin11:39
xG 1.18–0.18 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Faulk11:21
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Gleason – McBain15:06
xG 0.77–0.88 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:44
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Belanger – Jones – Paajarvi7:59
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander7:10
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Hemsky2:37
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry2:14
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Sutton – Gilbert2:02
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Sutton – Peckham10:04
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).