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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark

Ottawa Senators 4, New Jersey Devils 5 (SO)

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Shootout

Home

New Jersey Devils

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.

NJD winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
OTT2917111022429
NJD0915312053531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:31OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:45OTTNick FolignoAssists: Jared Cowen, Colin Greening · Backhand, 0.39 xG2–0
  3. P2 9:41OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
  4. P2 14:59NJDZach PariseSHAssists: Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P3 2:59NJDDainius ZubrusSHAssists: Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
  6. P3 9:08NJDMattias TedenbyAssists: David Clarkson, Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.44 xG3–3
  7. P3 9:45NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:55OTTJesse WinchesterSHAssists: Chris Phillips, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
  2. 2. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
  3. 3. NJD Zach Parise scored
  4. 4. OTT Jason Spezza scored
  5. 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
  6. 6. OTT Daniel Alfredsson scored
  7. 7. NJD Adam Henrique scored
  8. 8. OTT David Rundblad stopped
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 11:54NJDPetr Sykora: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P2 8:03NJDMattias Tedenby: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 8:49NJDPetr Sykora: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P2 11:56OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 14:02NJDNick Palmieri: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P3 1:57OTTJesse Winchester: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 1:57NJDRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 1:57NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 6:00OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  10. P3 10:56NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 10:56OTTZenon Konopka: Instigator2 min
  12. P3 10:56OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 10:56OTTZenon Konopka: Instigator misconduct10 min
  14. P3 13:01OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 18:33NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 18:33OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 18:43OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
45% to win55% to win
← OTT attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Henrique
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTNJD
29Shots on goal31
2.1Expected goals3.2
39Shot attempts45
31Faceoffs won28
6Power plays5
32Penalty minutes24
14Hits14
6Blocked shots6
3Giveaways2
2Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestAlfredsson – Greening – Foligno6:32

    xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1

  2. Neil – Condra – Smith7:20

    xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Konopka – Winchester – Butler3:32

    xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  4. Spezza – Michalek – Daugavins10:13

    xG 0.15–1.20 (11%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGonchar – Phillips5:00

    xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  2. Lee – Cowen3:08

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Phillips – Karlsson2:15

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:11

    xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0

  2. Zubrus – Clarkson – Carter4:20

    xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Sykora – Elias – Tedenby4:49

    xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestTallinder – Fayne13:30

    xG 0.71–0.08 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0

  2. Salvador – Larsson12:45

    xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0

  3. Volchenkov – Fraser7:41

    xG 0.10–1.03 (9%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.2 xGOTT 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #9 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.72 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.

NJD winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).