Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 114 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 331 |
| NYR | 113 | 16 | 05 | 06 | 0 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 11:23TBLRyan MaloneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 13:23NYRArtem AnisimovSHAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brandon Dubinsky · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 18:03TBLDominic MooreSHAssists: Victor Hedman, Eric Brewer · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR John Mitchell stopped
- 2. TBL Ryan Malone stopped
- 3. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 4. TBL Dominic Moore scored
- 5. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
Penalties (24)
- P1 3:46TBLBlair Jones: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:33TBLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:51TBLDana Tyrell: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:05NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:16NYRSteve Eminger: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:53NYRMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:53TBLDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:53NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:23TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23NYRArtem Anisimov: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23NYRArtem Anisimov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:23TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23NYRArtem Anisimov: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:23NYRArtem Anisimov: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:34NYRMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:34TBLDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:37TBLTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:54TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10TBLRyan Malone: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Downie – Stamkos7:55
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Moore – Shannon – Connolly2:05
xG 0.07–0.18 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Pyatt – Purcell6:58
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Gilroy7:47
xG 0.84–0.22 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Gilroy – Hedman3:27
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Bergeron2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Boyle – Mitchell – Hagelin3:59
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan6:43
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Avery – Dubinsky – Prust2:30
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Richards – Fedotenko – Callahan10:54
xG 0.19–0.95 (17%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – McDonagh2:16
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto2:31
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Stralman6:30
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).