Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 012 | 19 | 111 | 232 |
| DET | 512 | 08 | 012 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:09DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 14:46DETTomas HolmstromPPGWGAssists: Ian White, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–3
- P1 15:29DETDarren HelmAssists: Chris Conner, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P1 19:17DETJiri HudlerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 15:15PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Morris · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 11:32PHXMartin HanzalPPAssists: Shane Doan, Ray Whitney · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:53PHXTaylor Pyatt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:59PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:30DETDaniel Cleary: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:25PHXDaymond Langkow: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:00DETDaniel Cleary: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:30PHXKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:24DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:46DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 15:32PHXDavid Schlemko: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski8:53
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker4:24
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Langkow – Torres – Chipchura2:44
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Doan – Turris4:54
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rozsival – Schlemko8:50
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson9:23
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Aucoin – Yandle2:06
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler8:50
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen7:26
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Cleary – Helm – Conner6:56
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader5:21
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson11:46
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Lidstrom – White11:35
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kindl14:00
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).