Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 2, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 15 | 19 | 218 |
| CGY | 010 | 015 | 310 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:15COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 6:21CGYLee StempniakPPAssists: Brendan Morrison, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 7:47CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Brendan Morrison, Lee Stempniak · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 9:58COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 15:10CGYOlli JokinenGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:11CGYTom Kostopoulos: Holding2 min
- P1 7:09COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:05COLDaniel Winnik: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:03COLJan Hejda: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:34CGYLee Stempniak: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:15COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:35COLTJ Galiardi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 15:46COLBrandon Yip: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYip – Galiardi – Duchene7:56
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Winnik6:45
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Yip – Duchene3:24
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:24
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Elliott9:28
xG 0.46–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda8:30
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Quincey – O'Brien11:03
xG 0.14–0.45 (23%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Glencross8:39
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund8:11
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan6:33
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Morrison – Tanguay – Bourque8:19
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler18:08
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Hannan – Smith7:52
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Piskula – Brodie9:31
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).