Sat, Dec 10, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Boston Bruins 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 27 | 19 | 213 | 529 |
| CBJ | 213 | 112 | 011 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46CBJRick NashAssists: Vinny Prospal, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:09CBJJeff CarterPPAssists: Derick Brassard, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 18:26BOSJoe CorvoAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 19:11BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 0:58BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 16:05CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 6:44BOSJoe CorvoPPGWGAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:34BOSChris KellyPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.22 xG5–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:57BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:20CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:34BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:08BOSMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:08BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:40CBJDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:27BOSAndrew Ference: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:24CBJRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:47BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:03CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:05BOSDavid Krejci: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:05CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:54BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:28CBJAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:26CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin8:57
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron4:53
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:36
xG 0.41–0.78 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 2–2
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot7:47
xG 0.20–0.58 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk5:06
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Corvo – Seidenberg8:03
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk4:32
xG 0.08–0.11 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Brassard – Johansen8:55
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Dorsett4:01
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Carter10:10
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Letestu3:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Moore14:27
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin11:24
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Methot9:14
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).