Sat, Dec 10, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 15 | 17 | 217 |
| NSH | 07 | 113 | 28 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:38ANAAndrew GordonAssists: Brandon McMillan, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:03NSHNick SpalingAssists: Colin Wilson, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:33NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Shea Weber, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 5:25NSHJordin TootooGWGAssists: Kevin Klein, Jerred Smithson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 13:24ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:36NSHBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:36ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:40ANAAndrew Gordon: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:18ANABobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:26NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 4:00ANABrandon McMillan: Holding2 min
- P3 0:58ANABrandon McMillan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:44NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:44ANABobby Ryan: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:28NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against McMillan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Getzlaf – Perry5:57
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Parros – Beleskey – Macenauer8:27
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hagman – Gordon – McMillan5:07
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 1–2
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri10:02
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Fowler18:20
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Lydman – Guenin10:57
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 5–13goals 1–2
- Brookbank – Sbisa11:44
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist9:57
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Wilson8:41
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- McGrattan – Smithson – Halischuk4:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Smith11:23
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber17:26
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein15:48
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Hillen – Josi10:07
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).