Sun, Dec 11, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 1, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 07 | 07 | 121 |
| NYR | 29 | 413 | 011 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:27NYRArtem AnisimovPPGWGAssists: Erik Christensen, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.38 xG0–2
- P1 18:07FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Kris Versteeg, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 5:45NYRDerek StepanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 10:43NYRSteve EmingerAssists: John Mitchell, Brian Boyle · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 16:53NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Artem Anisimov, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.33 xG1–5
- P2 17:48NYRDerek StepanAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:32NYRSteve Eminger: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:43FLAJack Skille: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:32FLAMikael Samuelsson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:49NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:32FLATomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:44NYRBrandon Prust: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:47NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:47FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:09NYRJeff Woywitka: Holding2 min
- P3 0:40NYRMarian Gaborik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:18NYRJeff Woywitka: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Barch – Kennedy6:48
xG 0.28–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg9:33
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Sturm – Skille – Matthias3:08
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sturm – Samuelsson – Skille6:35
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison11:05
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:22
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson5:26
xG 0.26–0.62 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–3
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan6:22
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Hagelin5:55
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Callahan6:29
xG 0.09–0.02 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Christensen – Dubinsky – Prust4:47
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto12:35
xG 1.64–0.33 (83%)attempts 19–12goals 4–0
- Woywitka – Stralman12:28
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:19
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).