Mon, Dec 12, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 36 | 05 | 522 |
| TBL | 210 | 017 | 29 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Bryce Salvador, Patrik Elias · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:38NJDDainius ZubrusPPAssists: Matt Taormina, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 17:34TBLSteve DownieAssists: Matt Gilroy, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 18:54TBLBlair JonesAssists: Dana Tyrell, Matt Gilroy · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 0:56NJDZach PariseAssists: Adam Henrique, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 5:42NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 13:23NJDAdam HenriqueSHGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Mark Fayne · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 9:29TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Dominic Moore, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–3
- P3 19:26TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Pavel Kubina, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:44TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:43TBLPavel Kubina: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:43NJDRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:12NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 9:52NJDMatt Taormina: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:07NJDHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:21NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 19:11TBLDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:01TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:01NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:49TBLDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:23NJDAlexander Urbom: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23NJDAlexander Urbom: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:23TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:09
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Sykora – Elias – Clarkson10:52
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Boulton – Sestito – Tedenby2:28
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus2:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Larsson15:09
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Salvador – Larsson2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Salvador – Taormina6:55
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Jones – Tyrell2:28
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Stamkos3:28
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Moore – Stamkos2:34
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malone – Downie – Stamkos2:33
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Gilroy2:18
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Hedman2:47
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kubina – Bergeron9:21
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).