Tue, Dec 13, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Dallas Stars 1, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 012 | 18 | 128 |
| NYR | 08 | 013 | 013 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 15:01DALTrevor DaleyGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:37NYRCarl Hagelin: Charging2 min
- P1 17:10DALMike Ribeiro: Interference2 min
- P2 3:16NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:16DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:38DALTom Wandell: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:16NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:37NYRSteve Eminger: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:37DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:50DALTom Wandell: Interference2 min
- P3 15:18DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Eriksson – Benn9:58
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ott12:21
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Dowell – Wandell – Vincour3:51
xG 0.01–0.12 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:32
xG 0.52–1.24 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen14:25
xG 0.86–0.65 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann13:39
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Souray – Robidas12:50
xG 0.27–1.03 (21%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChristensen – Dubinsky – Prust3:52
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Hagelin8:38
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan8:01
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan3:26
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Stralman11:47
xG 1.05–0.56 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Eminger – Del Zotto10:49
xG 0.40–0.15 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto2:00
xG 0.02–0.23 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).