Tue, Dec 13, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 116 | 15 | 00 | 2 | 334 |
| FLA | 115 | 16 | 01 | 04 | 0 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:10FLAKris VersteegAssists: Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 7:29FLAKris VersteegSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 8:25NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Bryce Salvador · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 7:40NJDZach PariseAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 2. FLA Tomas Fleischmann stopped
- 3. NJD Zach Parise stopped
- 4. FLA Kris Versteeg stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:13FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:13NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:13FLAMike Santorelli: Holding2 min
- P1 16:53FLAKrys Barch: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:40FLAEd Jovanovski: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:49NJDZach Parise: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:49NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:49FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:49FLAMike Weaver: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:16FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:05NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopecky won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique13:35
xG 1.13–0.21 (84%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus11:19
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Boulton – Clarkson – Carter9:27
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Janssen – Sestito – Tedenby3:30
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne17:36
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Salvador – Larsson11:45
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Taormina – Larsson2:18
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Bergenheim – Matthias10:53
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bradley – Barch – Santorelli4:41
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg16:43
xG 0.34–0.92 (27%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
- Sturm – Kopecky – Skille10:34
xG 0.05–0.75 (6%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Ellerby12:03
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:56
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:39
xG 0.19–0.73 (21%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).