Wed, Dec 14, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 113 | 310 | 529 |
| OTT | 013 | 114 | 122 | 249 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Andrew Ference, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 4:23OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:47BOSChris KellyAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 4:54BOSPatrice BergeronGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 5:50BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Shawn Thornton, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 15:55OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Chris Phillips, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 18:56BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:46OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:46BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:31BOSDennis Seidenberg: Interference2 min
- P2 17:45BOSAdam McQuaid: Kneeing5 min
- P2 17:45BOSAdam McQuaid: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:40OTTZenon Konopka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:43BOSNathan Horton: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:23BOSBrad Marchand: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Paille – Hamill6:36
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot7:02
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:42
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:23
xG 0.22–0.56 (28%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk11:10
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid2:12
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Ference – McQuaid3:11
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Condra – Smith10:02
xG 0.58–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – Winchester8:31
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Greening10:09
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 19–12goals 1–2
- Regin – Foligno – Butler12:32
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen12:11
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Phillips – Carkner8:28
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Phillips – Rundblad2:27
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).