Thu, Dec 15, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Dallas Stars 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 011 | 29 | 329 |
| NYI | 15 | 18 | 014 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Jamie Benn, Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:38NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:24NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Marty Reasoner, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 1:07DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Steve Ott, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 4:33DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:30NYIMatt Martin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:46DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:28NYIMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:47NYIPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:37DALBrenden Morrow: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:38NYITim Wallace: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:57NYITim Wallace: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P3 6:12DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:12NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:12DALSheldon Souray: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:28DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P3 14:22NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Eriksson – Benn7:30
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Dowell – Wandell – Vincour4:07
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom7:30
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ott10:18
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Grossmann10:04
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Larsen14:03
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas10:53
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:43
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Rolston – Bailey – Ullstrom2:27
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:21
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Wallace – Martin2:49
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReese – de Haan8:28
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Streit – Hamonic11:48
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Mottau – Jurcina12:01
xG 0.29–0.66 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).