Thu, Dec 15, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Calgary Flames 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 15 | 213 | 00 | 427 |
| TBL | 110 | 318 | 05 | 11 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Steve Downie, Dominic Moore · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:27CGYMatt StajanAssists: Tim Jackman, Tom Kostopoulos · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 1:57CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:10TBLTom PyattAssists: Ryan Shannon, Blair Jones · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 12:05TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:26TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Dana Tyrell, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 0:58CGYRene BourqueAssists: Derek Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 16:48CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Derek Smith · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 0:30TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Eric Brewer, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:30CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:17CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:17TBLTeddy Purcell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:46TBLMatt Gilroy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:55TBLDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:06TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan7:47
xG 0.84–0.08 (91%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Morrison – Tanguay – Bourque7:42
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Morrison – Stempniak – Comeau3:28
xG 0.02–0.14 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund8:56
xG 0.52–0.92 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Smith13:37
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler19:46
xG 0.96–0.80 (55%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
- Hannan – Brodie2:23
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell7:26
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Shannon – Jones – Pyatt4:14
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Moore – Purcell6:30
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Moore – Pyatt2:13
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Gilroy12:22
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Brewer – Hedman14:51
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Kubina – Brewer2:56
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).