Thu, Dec 15, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 29 | 07 | 427 |
| SJS | 111 | 112 | 311 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30SJSRyane CloweAssists: Logan Couture · Snap, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 5:51COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:49COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Stefan Elliott, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–1
- P2 1:12SJSMichal HandzusAssists: Martin Havlat, Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 3:01COLPaul StastnyAssists: Daniel Winnik, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 18:21COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Paul Stastny, David Van Der Gulik · Slap, 0.33 xG4–2
- P3 7:00SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 8:29SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Demers, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–4
- P3 11:29SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:09SJSBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:09COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:18SJSPatrick Marleau: Holding2 min
- P1 9:32COLKyle Quincey: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 18:50SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:20COLDavid Van Der Gulik: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:25COLDaniel Winnik: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:25SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:54SJSJustin Braun: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:54COLBrad Malone: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Stastny – Duchene13:11
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- McLeod – Brophey – Malone2:31
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Van Der Gulik – Galiardi9:03
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog14:08
xG 0.13–1.19 (10%)attempts 5–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Elliott6:18
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Johnson16:02
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Hejda – Elliott8:18
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Couture11:58
xG 0.95–0.21 (82%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Handzus – Havlat – McGinn11:37
xG 1.20–0.76 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Mitchell12:41
xG 0.92–0.58 (61%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins2:53
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers12:38
xG 1.73–0.45 (80%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- White – Braun11:10
xG 1.24–0.25 (83%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic19:27
xG 0.16–0.56 (22%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).