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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 15, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.

SJS winsCOL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:42Shot by Winnik, saved by Niemi
  3. P1 0:51Shot by O'Brien, saved by Niemi
  4. P1 2:09Winchester: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: SJS Winchester, Murray, Burns, Desjardins, Demers · COL O'Byrne, Quincey, McLeod, Brophey, Malone

  5. P1 2:09McLeod: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: SJS Winchester, Murray, Burns, Desjardins, Demers · COL O'Byrne, Quincey, McLeod, Brophey, Malone

  6. P1 2:29Shot by Couture, saved by Varlamov
  7. P1 2:30Goal by Clowe (Couture)+16 pts WP

    On ice: SJS White, Marleau, Clowe, Braun, Couture · COL Hejduk, O'Byrne, Quincey, O'Reilly, Landeskog

  8. P1 3:19Shot by Duchene, saved by Niemi
  9. P1 5:11Shot by Couture, saved by Varlamov
  10. P1 5:18Marleau: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: SJS White, Marleau, Clowe, Braun, Couture · COL Hejduk, O'Byrne, Quincey, O'Reilly, Landeskog

  11. P1 5:43Shot by Hejduk, saved by Niemi4v5
  12. P1 5:47Shot by Elliott, saved by Niemi4v5
  13. P1 5:51Goal by Stastny (Johnson)4v5+15 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Handzus, Boyle, Pavelski, Vlasic · COL Quincey, Winnik, Stastny, Johnson, Galiardi

  14. P1 6:22Shot by Johnson, saved by Niemi
  15. P1 9:27Shot by Pavelski, saved by Varlamov
  16. P1 9:32Quincey: Closing hand on puck (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Thornton, Burns, Pavelski, Mitchell, Demers · COL McClement, Van Der Gulik, O'Byrne, Quincey, Galiardi

  17. P1 9:30Shot by Thornton, saved by Varlamov
  18. P1 10:13Shot by Boyle, saved by Varlamov5v4
  19. P1 11:39Shot by Thornton, saved by Varlamov
  20. P1 12:25Shot by Elliott, saved by Niemi
  21. P1 14:22Shot by Burns, saved by Varlamov
  22. P1 15:20Shot by Couture, saved by Varlamov
  23. P1 15:23Shot by Braun, saved by Varlamov
  24. P1 16:43Shot by Winchester, saved by Varlamov
  25. P1 17:42Shot by Hejda, saved by Niemi
  26. P1 18:50Burns: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Handzus, Havlat, Burns, McGinn, Demers · COL McClement, Van Der Gulik, O'Brien, Johnson, Galiardi

  27. P1 19:48Shot by Elliott, saved by Niemi4v5
  28. P1 19:49Goal by O'Reilly (Elliott, Hejduk)4v5+18 pts WP

    On ice: SJS White, Thornton, Braun, Couture · COL Hejduk, O'Reilly, Duchene, Elliott, Landeskog

  29. P1 0:00Period end
  30. P2 0:00Period start
  31. P2 1:12Goal by Handzus (Havlat, McGinn)+20 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Handzus, Havlat, Burns, McGinn, Demers · COL Hejduk, O'Brien, Stastny, Johnson, Duchene

  32. P2 1:35Shot by Landeskog, saved by Niemi
  33. P2 3:01Goal by Stastny (Winnik, Duchene)+21 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Thornton, Boyle, Pavelski, Mitchell, Vlasic · COL O'Brien, Winnik, Stastny, Johnson, Duchene

  34. P2 4:20Van Der Gulik: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Marleau, Clowe, Burns, Couture, Demers · COL McClement, Van Der Gulik, O'Byrne, Quincey, Galiardi

  35. P2 4:40Shot by Winnik, saved by Niemi5v4
  36. P2 5:19Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Niemi5v4
  37. P2 5:50Shot by Boyle, saved by Varlamov5v4
  38. P2 5:59Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov5v4
  39. P2 6:11Shot by Burns, saved by Varlamov5v4
  40. P2 6:27Shot by White, saved by Varlamov
  41. P2 6:31Shot by Braun, saved by Varlamov
  42. P2 7:25Winnik: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: SJS White, Marleau, Clowe, Braun, Couture · COL O'Brien, Winnik, Stastny, Johnson, Duchene

  43. P2 7:25Clowe: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: SJS White, Marleau, Clowe, Braun, Couture · COL O'Brien, Winnik, Stastny, Johnson, Duchene

  44. P2 7:38Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov
  45. P2 10:24Shot by Stastny, saved by Niemi
  46. P2 10:46Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov
  47. P2 12:47Shot by Galiardi, saved by Niemi
  48. P2 13:39Shot by Hejda, saved by Niemi
  49. P2 14:07Shot by Mitchell, saved by Varlamov
  50. P2 14:58Shot by McClement, saved by Niemi
  51. P2 16:38Shot by Pavelski, saved by Varlamov
  52. P2 17:11Shot by McGinn, saved by Varlamov
  53. P2 18:21Goal by Winnik (Stastny, Van Der Gulik)+17 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Handzus, Havlat, McGinn, Braun, Demers · COL Van Der Gulik, Quincey, Winnik, Stastny, Elliott

  54. P2 19:59Shot by Pavelski, saved by Varlamov
  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 2:44Shot by Braun, saved by Varlamov
  58. P3 3:48Shot by Thornton, saved by Varlamov
  59. P3 4:40Shot by McGinn, saved by Varlamov
  60. P3 4:49Shot by Van Der Gulik, saved by Niemi
  61. P3 6:59Shot by Burns, saved by Varlamov
  62. P3 7:00Goal by Burns (Havlat)+15 pts WP

    On ice: SJS White, Marleau, Havlat, Burns, Couture · COL Hejda, Brophey, Galiardi, Malone, Elliott

  63. P3 8:11Shot by McClement, saved by Niemi
  64. P3 8:28Shot by Demers, saved by Varlamov
  65. P3 8:29Goal by Pavelski (Demers, Thornton)+34 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Thornton, Burns, Pavelski, Mitchell, Demers · COL McClement, Van Der Gulik, O'Byrne, Quincey, Galiardi

  66. P3 8:54Braun: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Handzus, White, Havlat, McGinn, Braun · COL Hejda, Johnson, Malone, O'Reilly, Landeskog

  67. P3 9:21Shot by Elliott, saved by Niemi4v5
  68. P3 11:29Goal by Couture (Marleau, Vlasic)+32 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Marleau, Boyle, Clowe, Vlasic, Couture · COL O'Byrne, Hejda, Winnik, Stastny, Duchene

  69. P3 12:02Shot by Demers, saved by Varlamov
  70. P3 12:35Shot by Hejduk, saved by Niemi
  71. P3 12:40Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Niemi
  72. P3 13:27Shot by Boyle, saved by Varlamov
  73. P3 14:54Malone: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: SJS White, Marleau, Clowe, Braun, Couture · COL McClement, Van Der Gulik, O'Byrne, Hejda, Galiardi

  74. P3 15:28Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov5v4
  75. P3 17:32Shot by Stastny, saved by Niemi
  76. P3 17:39Shot by O'Brien, saved by Niemi
  77. P3 0:00Period end
  78. P3 0:00Final