Fri, Dec 16, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 3, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 114 | 117 | 336 |
| NJD | 111 | 39 | 211 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40DALMichael RyderAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 15:43NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Patrik Elias, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 1:38DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Steve Ott · Slap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 3:35NJDAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Zach Parise · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 12:12NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Larsson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 18:33NJDPetr SykoraGWGAssists: Cam Janssen, Ryan Carter · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 9:19NJDZach PariseAssists: Adam Larsson, Ilya Kovalchuk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 14:10DALToby PetersenAssists: Sheldon Souray, Jake Dowell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 14:30NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Petr Sykora · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:08DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:22DALMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:18NJDAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:06NJDCam Janssen: Interference2 min
- P2 12:41NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:29NJDAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Ott13:02
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Petersen – Dowell – Wandell6:11
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn12:47
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:08
xG 0.47–0.81 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas7:10
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 2–2
- Grossmann – Goligoski6:04
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Souray – Goligoski6:15
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique12:21
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus10:56
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Boulton – Janssen – Carter7:56
xG 0.18–0.46 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Zajac – Tedenby10:51
xG 0.27–0.93 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Foster7:24
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Salvador – Fayne6:05
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Volchenkov – Fayne3:18
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).