Fri, Dec 16, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 011 | 15 | 03 | 1 | 226 |
| FLA | 110 | 013 | 114 | 04 | 2 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57FLASean BergenheimAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Shawn Matthias · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 10:00CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Curtis Glencross, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 3:55CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 15:25FLASean BergenheimAssists: Shawn Matthias, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Shawn Matthias stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay scored
- 3. FLA Sean Bergenheim stopped
- 4. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
- 5. FLA Dmitry Kulikov scored
- 6. CGY TJ Brodie stopped
- 7. FLA Stephen Weiss scored
- 8. CGY Lee Stempniak stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:26CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:31FLAKrys Barch: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:18CGYTim Jackman: Charging2 min
- P2 4:51CGYScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:44FLAShawn Matthias: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:12FLAMarco Sturm: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:08CGYBrendan Morrison: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:40FLAKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:13CGYAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:18FLAKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:18CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Stempniak – Comeau2:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan10:00
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Morrison – Tanguay – Bourque7:56
xG 0.03–0.35 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Horak7:40
xG 0.27–0.68 (29%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Brodie11:04
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler14:30
xG 0.45–0.94 (32%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Hannan – Smith14:20
xG 0.05–0.93 (5%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Bergenheim – Matthias10:55
xG 1.78–0.32 (85%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg13:08
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sturm – Kopecky – Skille7:19
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bradley – Barch – Santorelli4:30
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov13:17
xG 1.33–0.06 (95%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Jovanovski – Ellerby12:14
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:18
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).