Sat, Dec 17, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 213 | 210 | 535 |
| MTL | 06 | 311 | 09 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 2:21MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:05NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 6:33MTLChris CampoliAssists: Yannick Weber, Hal Gill · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 8:57MTLLars EllerAssists: Louis Leblanc, Hal Gill · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 18:26NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 1:31NJDPatrik EliasGWGAssists: Petr Sykora · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 10:18NJDDainius ZubrusPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:50MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:11MTLErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 18:53MTLErik Cole: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 0:59NJDMark Fayne: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:34NJDAnton Volchenkov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:21MTLErik Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:17NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:14NJDKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:09MTLMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique12:53
xG 0.49–0.31 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Zajac – Tedenby9:43
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Boulton – Janssen – Carter3:31
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus9:33
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Fayne5:48
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Taormina – Larsson6:36
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Fayne – Taormina6:08
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:06
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn9:49
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Darche – Eller – Leblanc13:01
xG 0.24–0.77 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Subban14:21
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Gill – Campoli10:29
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
- Kaberle – Emelin9:52
xG 0.27–0.58 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).