Sat, Dec 17, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 06 | 24 | 319 |
| PIT | 413 | 28 | 25 | 826 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17PITJason WilliamsAssists: Alexandre Picard, Craig Adams · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 6:07PITSimon DespresPPAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Jason Williams · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 9:43PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 12:55BUFThomas VanekAssists: Robyn Regehr, Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 17:30PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Carl Sneep, Alexandre Picard · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 0:53PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–5
- P2 17:54PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Arron Asham, Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 8:49BUFLuke AdamUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 10:13BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Drew Stafford, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–6
- P3 11:43PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: James Neal, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–7
- P3 13:39PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Deryk Engelland · Snap, 0.06 xG3–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:26BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:55BUFPaul Szczechura: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:10PITArron Asham: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:43PITMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P3 6:02BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:01BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:52BUFRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Ellis – Stafford2:17
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Szczechura – Adam – Kassian2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Ellis2:09
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Szczechura7:13
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Sekera13:49
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Gragnani – Weber10:06
xG 0.19–0.63 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Leopold – Ehrhoff14:29
xG 0.18–0.71 (21%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal9:39
xG 1.07–0.21 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 3–2
- Cooke – Dupuis – Kennedy2:57
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Williams – Tangradi2:54
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Cooke – Williams – Kennedy2:34
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Despres14:43
xG 1.39–0.38 (79%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Picard – Sneep13:07
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 2–1
- Orpik – Niskanen11:24
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).