Sat, Dec 17, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 2, Detroit Red Wings 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 19 | 010 | 229 |
| DET | 49 | 27 | 211 | 827 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45DETDrew MillerAssists: Darren Helm, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 2:00DETCory EmmertonAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Tomas Holmstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 8:32DETNiklas KronwallGWGAssists: Daniel Cleary, Darren Helm · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 17:15LAKDavis DrewiskeAssists: Justin Williams, Dustin Penner · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 18:35DETCory EmmertonAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Holmstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 11:03LAKJarret StollAssists: Justin Williams, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 12:06DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Jiri Hudler, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–5
- P2 19:38DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Johan Franzen, Todd Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–6
- P3 7:34DETDrew MillerAssists: Daniel Cleary · Snap, 0.15 xG2–7
- P3 11:18DETBrad StuartPPAssists: Cory Emmerton, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.05 xG2–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:35DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:43DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26DETJimmy Howard: Interference2 min
- P2 13:18LAKKevin Westgarth: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:32DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:10LAKColin Fraser: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 13:25LAKJarret Stoll: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Penner8:53
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Fraser – Westgarth – Clifford6:34
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–2
- Gagne – Brown – Kopitar13:21
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–3
- Hunter – Richardson – Lewis8:17
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez3:40
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Doughty11:19
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Drewiske8:57
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Helm8:49
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 3–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler10:56
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen12:21
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton9:18
xG 0.15–0.54 (22%)attempts 4–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl13:51
xG 0.90–0.47 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- Lidstrom – White14:53
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 3–0
- Stuart – Kronwall14:05
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 4–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).