Mon, Dec 19, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 39 | 09 | 328 |
| DAL | 18 | 29 | 216 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:19DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Sheldon Souray, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:43DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Stephane Robidas · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 4:30ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Corey Perry, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 14:49ANALubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:27ANANick BoninoAssists: Cam Fowler, Matt Beleskey · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 6:42DALMichael RyderGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 14:19DALEric NystromAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Radek Dvorak · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:08DALVernon Fiddler: Holding2 min
- P1 18:11ANALuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P1 19:32ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:05ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:19DALMark Fistric: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14ANALuca Sbisa: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:25DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:09ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:05DALMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:05ANACorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Bonino – Palmieri10:59
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Hagman – Getzlaf – Perry11:49
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
- Parros – Gordon – Pelley3:52
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Cogliano13:30
xG 0.21–1.18 (15%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Fowler18:26
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Brookbank – Sbisa11:34
xG 0.25–0.69 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Lydman – Visnovsky13:43
xG 0.26–1.09 (19%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Ott12:24
xG 1.01–0.46 (68%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn11:46
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:38
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Petersen – Dowell – Wandell4:45
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Goligoski14:49
xG 0.81–0.20 (80%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Daley – Grossmann15:13
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Souray – Robidas15:26
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).