Mon, Dec 19, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 010 | 110 | 01 | 2 | 233 |
| COL | 08 | 210 | 07 | 02 | 3 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:30PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 12:26COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Shane O'Brien, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 19:16COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Brad Malone, Paul Stastny · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:41PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Scott Hartnell, Braydon Coburn · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. COL Milan Hejduk scored
- 2. PHI Daniel Brière scored
- 3. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. PHI James van Riemsdyk scored
- 5. COL Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 6. PHI Matt Read stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:29COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:16PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:16COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:20PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:49COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
- P3 19:41PHIBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:41COLDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Brière – Hartnell12:03
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Talbot – van Riemsdyk – Voracek10:44
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Sestito – Simmonds – Read7:09
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Holmstrom – Zolnierczyk6:22
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn13:22
xG 0.58–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros6:17
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Bourdon8:34
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Galiardi – Malone7:20
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Porter – McLeod – Brophey4:26
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Winnik – Stastny – Duchene11:10
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:42
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Elliott11:06
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson15:59
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda15:00
xG 0.12–0.77 (14%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).