Tue, Dec 20, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 18 | 07 | 123 |
| OTT | 110 | 013 | 316 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48OTTZack SmithAssists: Chris Neil, Matt Carkner · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–1
- P2 13:12BUFJordan LeopoldPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 7:59OTTErik CondraGWGAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 17:49OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:14OTTErik CondraENAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:27OTTErik Condra: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:33OTTKaspars Daugavins: Holding2 min
- P2 7:51OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:38BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:18OTTColin Greening: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:52BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:55BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Ellis – Whitmore9:21
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek9:22
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Szczechura – Adam9:08
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Kassian – Foligno10:35
xG 0.21–0.95 (18%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Sekera13:55
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Weber15:03
xG 0.51–1.10 (31%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
- Ehrhoff – McNabb15:01
xG 0.31–1.04 (23%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Regin – Smith9:05
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Greening15:56
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Foligno – Condra – Turris11:28
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson17:23
xG 1.09–0.79 (58%)attempts 15–22goals 1–0
- Phillips – Carkner11:53
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen14:20
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).