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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 20, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.

OTT winsBUF wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:46Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Anderson
  3. P1 3:14Shot by Greening, saved by Miller
  4. P1 6:01Shot by Kuba, saved by Miller
  5. P1 7:03Shot by Condra, saved by Miller
  6. P1 7:35Shot by Neil, saved by Miller
  7. P1 8:20Shot by Gaustad, saved by Anderson
  8. P1 11:47Shot by Neil, saved by Miller
  9. P1 11:48Goal by Smith (Neil, Carkner)+18 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Neil, Daugavins, Smith, Karlsson · BUF Leopold, Gaustad, Weber, Kassian, Foligno

  10. P1 12:16Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Miller
  11. P1 12:22Shot by Greening, saved by Miller
  12. P1 12:34Shot by Pominville, saved by Anderson
  13. P1 12:40Shot by Sekera, saved by Anderson
  14. P1 13:25Shot by Gonchar, saved by Miller
  15. P1 13:27Condra: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Foligno, Condra, Turris, Cowen · BUF Regehr, Stafford, Sekera, Szczechura, Adam

  16. P1 14:01Shot by Roy, saved by Anderson4v5
  17. P1 14:14Shot by Smith, saved by Miller4v5
  18. P1 16:37Shot by Stafford, saved by Anderson
  19. P1 19:04Shot by Sekera, saved by Anderson
  20. P1 19:10Shot by Kassian, saved by Anderson
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 1:46Shot by Spezza, saved by Miller
  24. P2 2:35Shot by Gonchar, saved by Miller
  25. P2 3:16Shot by Whitmore, saved by Anderson
  26. P2 3:33Daugavins: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Neil, Konopka, Daugavins, Karlsson · BUF Leopold, Pominville, McCormick, Ellis, Weber, Whitmore

  27. P2 3:58Shot by Leopold, saved by Anderson4v5
  28. P2 6:31Shot by Spezza, saved by Miller
  29. P2 7:51Turris: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Foligno, Condra, Turris, Cowen · BUF Ehrhoff, McCormick, Ellis, Whitmore, McNabb

  30. P2 8:05Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Anderson4v5
  31. P2 8:38Stafford: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Phillips, Regin, Condra · BUF Leopold, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Stafford

  32. P2 10:41Shot by Gonchar, saved by Miller
  33. P2 11:00Shot by Cowen, saved by Miller
  34. P2 11:10Shot by Phillips, saved by Miller
  35. P2 11:26Shot by Smith, saved by Miller
  36. P2 12:18Greening: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Phillips, Spezza, Greening, Condra · BUF Gaustad, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Kassian, McNabb, Foligno

  37. P2 12:26Shot by Pominville, saved by Anderson4v5
  38. P2 12:46Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Anderson4v5
  39. P2 13:12Goal by Leopold (Ehrhoff, Vanek)4v5+22 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Konopka, Daugavins, Cowen · BUF Leopold, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Stafford

  40. P2 15:52Vanek: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Phillips, Carkner, Spezza, Greening · BUF Regehr, Roy, Pominville, Vanek, Sekera

  41. P2 16:01Shot by Gonchar, saved by Miller5v4
  42. P2 16:08Shot by Karlsson, saved by Miller5v4
  43. P2 17:14Shot by Foligno, saved by Miller5v4
  44. P2 18:03Shot by Cowen, saved by Miller
  45. P2 18:04Shot by Daugavins, saved by Miller
  46. P2 18:11Shot by Phillips, saved by Miller
  47. P2 18:56Shot by Whitmore, saved by Anderson
  48. P2 19:19Shot by Gaustad, saved by Anderson
  49. P2 0:00Period end
  50. P3 0:00Period start
  51. P3 0:24Shot by Foligno, saved by Anderson
  52. P3 1:51Shot by Adam, saved by Anderson
  53. P3 2:16Shot by Ellis, saved by Anderson
  54. P3 2:39Shot by Neil, saved by Miller
  55. P3 3:38Shot by McNabb, saved by Anderson
  56. P3 6:39Shot by Roy, saved by Anderson
  57. P3 7:24Shot by Spezza, saved by Miller
  58. P3 7:58Shot by Turris, saved by Miller
  59. P3 7:59Goal by Condra (Turris)+29 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Carkner, Foligno, Condra, Turris, Cowen · BUF Leopold, Stafford, Weber, Szczechura, Adam

  60. P3 11:23Shot by Condra, saved by Miller
  61. P3 11:56Shot by Condra, saved by Miller
  62. P3 12:39Shot by Greening, saved by Miller
  63. P3 12:48Shot by Sekera, saved by Anderson
  64. P3 13:42Shot by Neil, saved by Miller
  65. P3 14:00Shot by Karlsson, saved by Miller
  66. P3 14:05Shot by Regin, saved by Miller
  67. P3 16:25Shot by Neil, saved by Miller
  68. P3 16:45Shot by Neil, saved by Miller
  69. P3 16:55Gaustad: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Neil, Carkner, Regin, Smith · BUF Gaustad, Ehrhoff, Kassian, McNabb, Foligno

  70. P3 17:49Goal by Karlsson (Alfredsson, Spezza)5v4+5 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Neil, Spezza, Karlsson · BUF Regehr, Roy, Pominville, Sekera

  71. P3 17:47Shot by Spezza, saved by Miller5v4
  72. P3 18:14Goal by Condra (Karlsson)5v60 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Foligno, Condra, Turris, Karlsson · BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Stafford, Szczechura, McNabb

  73. P3 18:58Shot by Ellis, saved by Anderson
  74. P3 19:18Shot by Carkner, saved by Miller
  75. P3 0:00Period end
  76. P3 0:00Final