Thu, Dec 22, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 415 | 19 | 07 | 531 |
| NSH | 110 | 315 | 213 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:29NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 12:56CBJJeff CarterAssists: Vinny Prospal · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 14:35CBJJeff CarterPPAssists: Rick Nash, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 15:30CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 16:14CBJJeff CarterPPAssists: Rick Nash, Nikita Nikitin · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–1
- P2 5:28NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Shea Weber, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P2 7:52CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
- P2 8:53NSHNick SpalingAssists: Colin Wilson, Jordin Tootoo · Tip-in, 0.40 xG5–3
- P2 13:41NSHRoman JosiAssists: Francis Bouillon, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 16:14NSHDavid LegwandPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–5
- P3 19:51NSHMartin EratGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:32CBJNikita Nikitin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:26NSHBrian McGrattan: Interference5 min · PPG
- P1 14:26NSHBrian McGrattan: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 7:15NSHDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:15CBJDerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:42CBJDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:42NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:19NSHPatric Hornqvist: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:52CBJDerick Brassard: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Nash – Brassard11:18
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Vermette – Dorsett2:20
xG 0.03–0.01 (74%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Johansen4:36
xG 0.07–0.26 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Prospal – Pahlsson – Carter3:03
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wisniewski – Methot15:18
xG 0.54–0.87 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Nikitin17:46
xG 0.43–0.76 (36%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
- Clitsome – Moore11:29
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Wilson10:49
xG 1.31–0.17 (89%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Halischuk2:34
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Smith10:20
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- McGrattan – Smithson – Halischuk2:48
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Josi9:04
xG 0.86–0.23 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Suter – Weber16:30
xG 0.90–0.43 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Blum – Hillen8:08
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).