Thu, Dec 22, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 011 | 215 | 231 |
| CGY | 19 | 213 | 05 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:10CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–1
- P2 1:30CGYBlake ComeauAssists: Brendan Morrison, Tim Jackman · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 5:47CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 4:55DETJiri HudlerAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:48DETIan WhiteAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:04DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:41DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P2 4:32DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:12CGYDerek Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler5:44
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen5:28
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen6:49
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton3:57
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White16:42
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kronwall14:26
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Kronwall – White2:31
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman9:34
xG 0.58–0.39 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Byron – Nemisz – Horak6:45
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross12:51
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund13:21
xG 0.11–0.70 (13%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie12:42
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hannan – Bouwmeester2:52
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hannan – Smith14:37
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).