Fri, Dec 23, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 012 | 313 | 439 |
| WPG | 05 | 17 | 07 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:59PITJoe VitaleAssists: Alexandre Picard · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 9:11WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 0:22PITJames NealGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 4:14PITJordan StaalPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 4:54PITPascal DupuisAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:32WPGNik Antropov: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:16PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:37WPGTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:37PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:48PITSteve Sullivan: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:58WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:00WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:55WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:42WPGNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:23PITMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal10:04
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal7:00
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Asham – Adams – Williams2:06
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Staal3:16
xG 0.00–0.53 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Niskanen13:42
xG 0.96–0.80 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Michalek – Despres12:36
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Picard – Lovejoy12:26
xG 0.67–0.89 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Ladd13:47
xG 1.36–0.82 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Burmistrov9:54
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Fehr – Stapleton5:56
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Slater – Glass7:01
xG 0.08–0.50 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:37
xG 1.45–0.64 (69%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Oduya14:40
xG 0.97–0.47 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Stuart – Bogosian12:20
xG 0.21–0.97 (18%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).