Mon, Dec 26, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 15 | 18 | 222 |
| BUF | 48 | 05 | 010 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Drew Stafford, Jordan Leopold · Slap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 3:10BUFMatt EllisUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 11:15BUFChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Jochen Hecht, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P1 14:14BUFBrayden McNabbPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 19:43WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 9:51WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:09WSHRoman Hamrlik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:11BUFPatrick Kaleta: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:39WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:16BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:23WSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:53BUFBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:07BUFPatrick Kaleta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:11WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:06WSHMathieu Perreault: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Brouwer3:58
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Ward – Hendricks2:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Halpern – Ward2:43
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Backstrom – Johansson2:37
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Erskine – Orlov11:59
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:29
xG 0.25–0.47 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wideman14:12
xG 0.36–0.81 (31%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Vanek8:29
xG 0.72–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Roy – Stafford9:48
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ellis – Adam – Kassian6:40
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Kaleta8:23
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Weber13:26
xG 0.86–0.15 (86%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Regehr – Sekera11:05
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McNabb12:24
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).