Mon, Dec 26, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 111 | 27 | 323 |
| STL | 19 | 216 | 213 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24STLChris StewartPPAssists: David Backes, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:22DALMike RibeiroAssists: Alex Goligoski, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:09STLAdam CracknellAssists: Scott Nichol · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 19:57STLJason ArnottPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 6:43STLEvgeny GrachevGWGAssists: David Perron, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 7:57DALEric NystromAssists: Radek Dvorak, Vernon Fiddler · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 14:47DALMichael RyderAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:09STLChris StewartENAssists: David Perron, David Backes · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:45STLRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:30DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:56DALPhilip Larsen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:28STLRyan Reaves: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:25STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:25DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:25STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn13:00
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Petersen – Burish – Wandell6:09
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ott14:38
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:01
xG 0.30–0.85 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen20:09
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 21–20goals 3–0
- Daley – Grossmann15:45
xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Fistric – Pardy11:51
xG 0.06–0.63 (9%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Porter – D'Agostini11:18
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Stewart14:09
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Berglund – Perron – Grachev10:10
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Nichol – Cracknell – Reaves6:03
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk14:58
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo14:46
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Polak – Russell15:36
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).