Mon, Dec 26, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 29 | 17 | 321 |
| VAN | 313 | 15 | 18 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11VANAndrew EbbettAssists: Chris Higgins, Kevin Bieksa · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:13VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 16:51VANAndrew EbbettAssists: Jannik Hansen, Cody Hodgson · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 10:50EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Corey Potter, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 11:36VANAlexandre BurrowsSHGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P2 12:18EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Ryan Jones, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 3:14VANRyan KeslerAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Alexander Edler · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 5:04EDMRyan JonesAssists: Corey Potter, Jordan Eberle · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:03EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P1 5:22VANRyan Kesler: Charging2 min
- P1 10:30EDMEric Belanger: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:51EDMBen Eager: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:51VANAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:25VANAndrew Alberts: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:32EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:24EDMBen Eager: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:24VANAlexander Edler: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:28VANDale Weise: Charging5 min · PPG
- P2 8:28VANDale Weise: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:13EDMEric Belanger: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:13VANKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:59VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:50EDMRyan Smyth: Interference2 min
- P3 19:43VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Smyth – Horcoff – Gagner7:05
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Belanger – Eager – Jones5:08
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:19
xG 0.07–0.23 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPotter – Peckham2:26
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham2:39
xG 0.03–0.01 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Peckham – Plante3:00
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Raymond5:41
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:46
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Hansen – Ebbett – Hodgson3:37
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Weise2:13
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa9:22
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Alberts – Ballard9:30
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Salo – Edler9:06
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).