Tue, Dec 27, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 213 | 18 | 332 |
| FLA | 14 | 313 | 19 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Tim Kennedy · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:11TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Cody Franson, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:30FLABill ThomasAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mark Cullen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 4:13FLAJason GarrisonPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Michal Repik · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 6:55FLAKris VersteegPPGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P2 9:34TORDion PhaneufAssists: Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 9:17TORMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Cody Franson · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 11:44FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Matt Bradley, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:35FLAJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:17TORKeith Aulie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:14TORMikhail Grabovski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:54TORClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:41FLABrian Campbell: Holding2 min
- P3 8:03FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:30FLAMark Cullen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak11:44
xG 0.95–0.36 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Connolly – MacArthur – Kadri9:47
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Boyce4:58
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin10:07
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Schenn12:29
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
- Franson – Gardiner13:46
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson4:21
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Kennedy – Repik8:52
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Cullen – Thomas – Dadonov6:04
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Versteeg – Santorelli10:20
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Bradley – Fleischmann – Matthias10:15
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson12:41
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Campbell – Garrison11:37
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:16
xG 0.37–0.64 (36%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).