Wed, Dec 28, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 114 | 04 | 13 | 330 |
| SJS | 08 | 210 | 016 | 01 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:58VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Kevin Bieksa · Slap, 0.79 xG2–0
- P2 11:01SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:12SJSJoe ThorntonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 3:23VANAndrew EbbettGWGAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Jannik Hansen · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:49SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:45SJSBrent Burns: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:34SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:06VANAndrew Ebbett: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:45SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:49VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:35VANRyan Kesler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:35SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:29VANDaniel Sedin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:23VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows11:26
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Ebbett – Hodgson – Weise4:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Mancari4:23
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hansen – Raymond9:22
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa15:28
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Alberts – Ballard11:23
xG 0.70–0.66 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler12:55
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Mitchell – McGinn9:27
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins5:25
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture9:52
xG 0.10–0.13 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Ferriero11:17
xG 0.15–0.80 (16%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers11:41
xG 0.87–0.42 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Murray – Braun9:32
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).