Fri, Dec 30, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 315 | 18 | 02 | 425 |
| FLA | 07 | 112 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Ryan Callahan, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:10NYRBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 15:37NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Brad Richards, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 7:41NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 9:28FLAMatt BradleyAssists: Erik Gudbranson · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:00NYRMichael Del Zotto: Holding2 min
- P1 18:28NYRRyan Callahan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:14FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:35NYRDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:52FLATomas Kopecky: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 19:52NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:52NYRMike Rupp: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:52NYRMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:52FLAKrys Barch: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan9:27
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Dubinsky6:38
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Callahan3:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Prust4:45
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto13:41
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Bickel5:45
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Stralman2:21
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Matthias – Repik6:13
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:20
xG 0.25–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Santorelli – Kennedy – Thomas3:56
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Weiss – Versteeg2:47
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison16:37
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson8:20
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov11:53
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).