Sat, Dec 31, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 14 | 012 | 224 |
| WPG | 015 | 313 | 07 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:59TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:51WPGZach BogosianPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Antti Miettinen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:26WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 7:07TORPhil KesselAssists: Tim Connolly, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 10:50WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey, Antti Miettinen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:28TORKeith Aulie: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:49WPGAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:16TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22TORCody Franson: Holding2 min
- P2 9:18TORJoey Crabb: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 16:17TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:51WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Holding2 min
- P3 1:26WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:54TORTim Connolly: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stapleton won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Crabb – Boyce6:06
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin8:23
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Connolly – Lupul – Kessel11:48
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Lombardi – MacArthur – Kadri8:26
xG 0.25–0.28 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie8:20
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gardiner2:12
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:02
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Ladd6:49
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Fehr – Cormier4:58
xG 0.08–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stapleton – Kane12:23
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Miettinen – Glass – Burmistrov9:06
xG 0.10–0.36 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian13:43
xG 0.61–0.11 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Flood10:00
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Enstrom14:23
xG 0.44–0.76 (36%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).