Sat, Dec 31, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 06 | 19 | 220 |
| DAL | 312 | 19 | 06 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:39BOSTyler SeguinAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 16:59DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Tom Wandell · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 19:20DALMichael RyderPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 19:00DALTom WandellAssists: Adam Burish, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 1:08BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Seidenberg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:08BOSChris Kelly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:15BOSDennis Seidenberg: Delaying game2 min
- P1 9:58BOSBrad Marchand: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:57DALMichael Ryder: Interference2 min
- P1 18:31BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:31DALMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:19BOSShawn Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:16BOSTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:27DALMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:22DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:22BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Peverley – Pouliot9:06
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic13:28
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:46
xG 0.05–0.06 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:17
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk11:30
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Corvo – Ference2:56
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Corvo – Seidenberg12:01
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Burish – Dowell – Wandell4:43
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:46
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ott12:25
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn8:38
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen7:20
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Pardy2:06
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Goligoski2:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).