Sun, Jan 1, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 04 | 27 | 320 |
| NSH | 27 | 215 | 15 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 12:39NSHKevin KleinAssists: Nick Spaling, Jordin Tootoo · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:06NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 2:27NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Jack Hillen · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 5:59NSHSergei KostitsynGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Jerred Smithson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 1:17CGYRene BourqueAssists: Lee Stempniak, Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 17:57CGYBrendan MorrisonAssists: TJ Brodie, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 19:30NSHSergei KostitsynENAssists: Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.74 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:12NSHNick Spaling: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:59CGYTim Jackman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:56CGYTom Kostopoulos: Interference2 min
- P3 4:42CGYPaul Byron: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:13NSHPatric Hornqvist: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Bourque – Backlund3:16
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Byron – Horak2:38
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Bourque2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie8:48
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Sarich – Butler9:31
xG 0.69–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Brodie2:03
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Bourque12:26
xG 0.54–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Smithson – Halischuk5:46
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist9:43
xG 0.27–0.45 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Legwand – Erat – Smithson2:44
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Josi17:10
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Hillen – Ellis11:11
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Bouillon – Klein17:43
xG 0.22–0.89 (20%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).