Mon, Jan 2, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 29 | 08 | 03 | 229 |
| OTT | 09 | 09 | 210 | 14 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:47NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Petr Sykora · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 14:18NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Travis Zajac, Mattias Tedenby · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 1:21OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 13:17OTTErik CondraSHAssists: Filip Kuba · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 4:00OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:53OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:39NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:16NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:03NJDBryce Salvador: Holding2 min
- P2 14:20OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:20NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:20OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:58NJDDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Zajac – Tedenby6:44
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Boulton – Janssen – Carter3:36
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus12:48
xG 0.96–0.95 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique13:56
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Larsson17:39
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Foster – Taormina9:35
xG 0.24–0.32 (42%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne15:22
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Condra – Turris6:53
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Turris – Butler2:37
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening10:13
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Turris5:30
xG 0.11–0.21 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson20:16
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 28–9goals 1–0
- Lee – Cowen11:54
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:01
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).