Tue, Jan 3, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Calgary Flames 1, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 18 | 07 | 119 |
| WSH | 18 | 29 | 04 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 8:49WSHTroy BrouwerPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–2
- P2 13:51CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 17:01WSHDennis WidemanAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:36CGYRene Bourque: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P2 8:29CGYChris Butler: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:06CGYRene Bourque: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:20WSHMike Knuble: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:39WSHMike Green: Interference2 min
- P3 19:10WSHMike Knuble: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Comeau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Bourque – Backlund2:41
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Morrison – Stempniak – Comeau3:42
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross13:11
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Bourque8:01
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler16:42
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie12:07
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Hannan – Bouwmeester2:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Ovechkin – Brouwer10:56
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Beagle2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Knuble – Backstrom – Johansson11:12
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Halpern – Ward10:11
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson12:45
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Green – Orlov10:23
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wideman15:22
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).