Tue, Jan 3, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Islanders 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 06 | 211 | 06 | 2 | 436 |
| CAR | 117 | 110 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 4:11CARAnthony StewartAssists: Jay Harrison, Andreas Nodl · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:13CARBrandon SutterAssists: Drayson Bowman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:50NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Mark Streit, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 15:46CARChad LaRoseAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 18:30NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI PA Parenteau scored
- 2. CAR Jussi Jokinen scored
- 3. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 4. CAR Eric Staal stopped
- 5. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 6. CAR Chad LaRose stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:31CARBryan Allen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:57NYIMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:35CARTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Bailey – Martin7:29
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares17:35
xG 1.14–0.82 (58%)attempts 17–24goals 1–1
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen7:54
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Wallace – Niederreiter8:16
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit15:25
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic20:43
xG 0.95–0.99 (49%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
- Streit – Jurcina2:23
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Ruutu – Jokinen11:19
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman9:48
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Dalpe4:48
xG 0.10–0.30 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Nodl – Dalpe9:16
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk16:23
xG 1.23–0.72 (63%)attempts 30–12goals 3–1
- Gleason – McBain19:56
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- Allen – Spacek16:32
xG 0.79–0.79 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).