Thu, Jan 5, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 114 | 18 | 430 |
| NSH | 112 | 08 | 05 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18DALMike RibeiroAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brenden Morrow · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 8:31NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Nick Spaling · Snap, 0.31 xG1–1
- P1 19:21DALMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.56 xG2–1
- P2 6:28DALJamie BennUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 12:53DALAdam BurishAssists: Tom Wandell, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.29 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:46NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:46DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:46NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 6:59DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 19:03NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:44NSHFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:35NSHJordin Tootoo: Interference2 min
- P3 8:35DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:35NSHJordin Tootoo: Diving2 min
- P3 13:16DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:01DALMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson12:20
xG 0.94–0.54 (64%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Ryder – Ott – Benn9:16
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Burish – Wandell – Benn3:35
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom8:38
xG 0.30–0.57 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski12:54
xG 1.05–0.43 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Daley – Grossmann15:22
xG 1.14–0.57 (67%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
- Fistric – Benn5:25
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist6:01
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque7:29
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Legwand – Erat – Smithson2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Smithson – Halischuk2:49
xG 0.01–0.03 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Hillen8:02
xG 0.55–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein3:56
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hillen – Josi3:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).