Thu, Jan 5, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 06 | 08 | 124 |
| SJS | 115 | 115 | 09 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:13CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Mark Letestu, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 13:03SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Michal Handzus, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 4:44SJSJoe ThorntonGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:48CBJRyan Johansen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 16:25CBJRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:37SJSBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:37CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:37CBJDerek MacKenzie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:46CBJDerek Dorsett: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Desjardins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Vermette – Johansen3:10
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Johansen2:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Carter – Johansen5:16
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Brassard – Letestu3:24
xG 0.03–0.02 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Moore17:36
xG 1.05–0.95 (53%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Savard11:18
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin15:49
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski13:13
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Handzus – Murray – Wingels8:48
xG 0.30–0.07 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Winchester – Desjardins – McGinn8:49
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture10:35
xG 0.23–0.94 (20%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers13:00
xG 1.04–0.53 (66%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Murray – Burns2:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic15:19
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).