Sat, Jan 7, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 08 | 211 | 229 |
| NSH | 211 | 114 | 211 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14NSHShea WeberAssists: Martin Erat, Sergei Kostitsyn · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:16NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: David Legwand, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 17:04NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 6:56NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Martin Erat, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–4
- P3 8:35CARJay HarrisonAssists: Eric Staal, Anthony Stewart · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 14:28NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 17:56CARJay HarrisonPPAssists: Jamie McBain, Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:56CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58NSHJordin Tootoo: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:40CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:08CARAndreas Nodl: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:54CARBrandon Sutter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:09CARJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:12NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Sutter – Nodl3:55
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Staal – Stewart5:34
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Brent – Tlusty6:27
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Staal9:07
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain13:25
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason2:39
xG 0.03–0.17 (15%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Spacek – McBain2:56
xG 0.04–0.21 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson10:30
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:13
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Smith7:24
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque10:50
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Josi14:56
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Ellis10:49
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein2:48
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).