Tue, Jan 10, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 3, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 25 | 111 | 325 |
| MTL | 04 | 08 | 07 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:51STLJason ArnottGWGAssists: Ryan Reaves, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 14:58STLDavid BackesAssists: Chris Stewart, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 12:56STLChris StewartAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:50MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:48MTLMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:48STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:12MTLMathieu Darche: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:01STLT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P2 10:32STLRyan Reaves: Charging2 min
- P2 16:25STLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:11MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:31MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Stewart – Perron10:42
xG 0.44–0.34 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves5:03
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – D'Agostini – Berglund10:10
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Sobotka8:04
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Polak4:36
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Polak – Cole11:44
xG 0.76–0.29 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk3:52
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Plekanec – Blunden2:21
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:41
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec8:31
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 10–4goals 0–2
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller12:30
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Diaz6:34
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gill – Campoli3:51
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Campoli2:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).