Tue, Jan 10, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 214 | 04 | 01 | 1 | 528 |
| TBL | 07 | 214 | 29 | 01 | 0 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Alexander Sulzer, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:16VANJannik HansenSHAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 10:12TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Malone, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 12:27VANManny MalhotraAssists: Mike Duco, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 19:28TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Steven Stamkos, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 19:58VANRyan KeslerAssists: Mason Raymond, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–2
- P3 6:14TBLSteve DownieAssists: Pavel Kubina, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
- P3 18:59TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TBL Ryan Malone stopped
- 2. VAN Kevin Bieksa stopped
- 3. TBL Dominic Moore stopped
- 4. VAN Mason Raymond scored
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:11TBLMartin St. Louis: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 7:38VANAndrew Alberts: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:50VANKeith Ballard: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:26TBLDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:12TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:02VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 4:20TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Raymond – Hodgson11:05
xG 0.59–0.47 (55%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Higgins – Lapierre – Hansen10:57
xG 0.37–0.37 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:03
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Duco – Weise6:07
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – Edler13:46
xG 0.86–0.63 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Edler2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Alberts – Ballard13:09
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos5:12
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos2:32
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Tyrell6:32
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Moore – Connolly2:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Mikkelson5:13
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gervais5:29
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Clark – Bergeron2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).